Abstract
COVID-19 is one of the most serious global public health threats creating an alarming situation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for investigating and predicting COVID-19 incidence to control its spread more effectively. This study aim to forecast the expected number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh for next 3 weeks. The number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 from 8 March2020 to 4 February, 2021 was collected to fit an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in Bangladesh from 5th February 2021 to 25th February 2021. All statistical analyses were conducted using R-3.6.3 software with a significant level of p< 0.05. The ARIMA (1,2,1), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (1,2,2) and ARIMA (1,1,2) model was adopted for forecasting the number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and new deaths of COVID-19, respectively. The results showed that an upward trend for the total confirmed cases and total deaths, while total confirmed new cases and total new death, will become stable in the next 3 weeks if prevention measures are strictly followed to limit the spread of COVID-19. The forecasting results of COVID-19 will not be dreadful for upcoming days in Bangladesh. However, the government and health authorities should take new approaches and keep strong monitoring of the existing strategies to control the further spread of this pandemic.
 Asian J. Med. Biol. Res. March 2021, 7(1): 21-32
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing public health threat which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (WHO, 2020b)
Before fitting the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, it is necessary to confirmed that the series must be stationary
The findings indicated that all the series are nonstationary at their level (p-value>0.05), but after taking 1st difference, total confirmed new cases and deaths achieved stable variance
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing public health threat which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (WHO, 2020b) It is a viral infection and highly infectious disease considering to be transmitted from wild animals (bats) to human and first identified in Wuhan city of China (De Wit et al, 2016; Paules et al, 2020). SARS-CoV emerged from China in 2003, respectively MERS-CoV emerged from Middle East in 2012, developed severe symptoms (Azhar et al, 2019; Hui and Zumla, 2019). This virus is the 7th of coronaviruses that represents a serious public health threat for which World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020 (Cascella et al, 2020). By looking into these facts, we should have to imagine the heaviness of this pandemic globally and its impacts on public health
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