Forecasting the Political Economy of the Inner Solar System

Abstract

Social structural methods are applied to forecast the political economy of the inner solar system to the 22nd century. One method considers structural indicators, specifically, population, social organization, environment, and technology. Another method examines the Tongan diaspora as an analog of human expansion into space. This future political economy could emerge as a consequence of user strain on a global electrical power grid that develops by 2050. Alternative energy needs could turn to space-based sources. If on-orbit space-based energy infrastructure provides the rationale, capability, and allure to see humans routinely living and working in space, their presence on the Moon and among the near-Earth asteroids can lead to a human diaspora to Mars and its moons. These events will build the multi-planet economy, the multi-world system of societies, and the transnational state. The development of Mars will reach a maturity of settlement from 2130 onward. As these potential events become history, capital would be transformed, and higher-order space logistics in a multi-world system of societies with its multi-planet economy would lay the foundation for a Solar System Federation. This federation constitutes transnational states among off-world human societies that could fill the vacuum of a fading Westphalian nation-state system on Earth.