Forecasting the innovation of Ukraine’s economic development in a global dimension

Abstract

Purpose. To analyze the state and trends of innovative development of the countries of the world, to define the place of Ukraine in the international arena and forecast its innovation. Methodology. The methodological basis was formed by general scientific theoretical methods: generalization, explanation, grouping; statistical method (for a comprehensive assessment of the state and trends of innovative activity of the economies of the countries of the world and Ukraine); methods of analysis and synthesis, economic and mathematical methods of forecasting, methods of abstraction and visualization (for a visual demonstration of the actual data and the results of the study). Findings. The level of innovativeness of the world’s economies and Ukraine’s position in the ranking of the Global Innovation Index (GII) are analyzed. The positive/stimulating influence of globalization processes on the spread of innovations, as well as discriminatory methods of innovative development (“dumping” of second-order technologies in developing countries) are noted. The GII forecast is determined using a regression model of the dependence of this indicator on the specific weight of innovation-active enterprises in the total number of industrial enterprises and innovation costs. The forecasting results showed a slight downward trend in the value of the GII of Ukraine. It is argued that in order to increase the level of innovativeness of the national economy, to strengthen Ukraine’s competitive position, and taking into account the fact that the economies of other countries do not stop in their development, it is necessary to significantly intensify innovative activity in Ukraine. Originality. A scientific-methodical approach to predicting the innovativeness of economic development is proposed depending on the specific weight of innovatively active enterprises in the total number of industrial enterprises and innovation costs. There is an opportunity to carry out predictive and planning calculations of the selected forecasting object, to investigate the behavior of the macroeconomic system in the context of the innovativeness of its development, to make adjustments to the strategic management system at the state level in order to stimulate innovative processes and influence the results of the innovative development of Ukraine in the global dimension. Practical value. The proposed scientific-methodical approach makes it possible to assess the trends of the level of innovativeness of development in the future and becomes an informative basis for developing a system of measures for the activation of innovative activity.