Abstract
The present study is aimed at forecasting the processes of gullyerosion in the Udmurt Republic using the methods of mathematical modeling. Five time series characterizing the average linear growth rate of gullies for the period from 1978 to 2017 were selected as a source material. Gullies were grouped according to the geographical principle and genesis. As part of this work, it is expected to build a medium-term forecast for the period 2018-2022. Fourier analysis was chosen as the basis for working with the initial time series. The results of the obtained models are graphically displayed. Subsequent regression analysis confirmed the validity of the model for at least four of the five groups of gullies. However, when comparing the obtained forecast values with those actually measured in 2018, it turned out that this model could not take into account the possible extreme values of the growth of individual gullies in the group.
Published Version
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