Forecasting the future suitable growth areas and constructing ecological corridors for the vulnerable species Ephedra sinica in China

Abstract

Ephedra sinica is a rare and vulnerable species in China, and the habitat of Ephedra sinica is seriously threatened (by climate change and human activities). Predicting the suitable growth areas and constructing ecological corridors for Ephedra sinica in China will help to protect it scientifically. Based on 306 valid distribution records and 13 selected environmental factors, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the potential current habitat zones and future (2050 and 2070) habitat zones of Ephedra sinica under four climate change scenarios. The minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was applied to extract important ecological corridors of Ephedra sinica. The results indicate that: (1) Under the current environment, the total area of the suitable habitat for Ephedra sinica in China is 42.24 × 105 km2, mainly distributed in Northwest China and North China. (2) Suitable area increases as the RCP rises. The center of mass of the habitat zone moved northward from Shaanxi Province to Ordos City in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. (3) Of the 13 environmental factors selected, the primary factor was elevation (20.8 %), followed by wettest month precipitation (18.2 %) and temperature seasonality (15.2 %). (4) Built 19 ecological corridors, with a total corridor length of 430.2 km, including seven long-distance passages and 12 short-distance corridors. All corridors are far from the artificial surface, mostly near high-altitude areas. The 19 ecological corridors constructed using the MCR model will also provide considerable importance for the survival of Ephedra sinica on a longer time scale in the future.