Forecasting the future of technology by analogy—An evaluation of two prominent cases from the 20th century

Abstract

It seems natural to assume that the more similar two events are, the more likely they are to turn out similarly. When the topic involves emerging technologies that means a technology that has already followed a particular diffusion path might be useful in ascertaining the diffusion path of a subsequent technology. Based on an historical analysis, this paper identifies two of the longest running examples of forecasting by analogy in the 20th century and analyzes how they turned out. In these two cases, at least, forecasting by analogy served more to misdirect than to accurately gauge future demand.