Abstract
This paper is an effort to identify the factors that may affect the duration of network public opinions caused by failed public policies, and accordingly to propose a model that could predict the duration before the release of policies, in order to provide some rational suggestions to decision makers to reduce the risk of publishing public policies. This paper argues that these factors involve four dimensions: audience, environment, reality, and the Internet. 23 typical Chinese failed public policies happened in recent years and their caused network public opinions are taken as the dataset, and the multivariate regression model and the Cobb-Douglas production function are applied to form the models. Results show that the Cobb-Douglas production form based models could accurately predict the duration of network public opinions aroused by the failure of public policies.
Published Version
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