Abstract
The article discusses the development of the social infrastructure of agriculture in the Chuvash Republic for the period from 2009 to 2018. Agriculture occupies a special position in the region’s economy and is a backbone industry. Its share in the gross regional product is 9%, which is noticeably higher than in other regions of the country, and the share of residents living in rural areas is 36.6%. With the help of the Excel program, a forecast of the development of rural social infrastructure for the most important indicators for 2019–2022 is presented. according to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. As studies have shown, a pessimistic scenario is more likely to be implemented, which requires immediate corrective measures to effectively manage the industry, in particular, by creating a single “Chuvash Center for the Development of Rural Areas”.
Highlights
Agriculture is a complex system, the development strategy of which goes beyond production and is largely determined by the state and prospects of solving social problems
In contrast to the presented publications, this paper proposes to use the mathematical apparatus to substantiate the development of the social infrastructure of agriculture and, based on forecasts, to carry out effective leadership
Based on the dynamics of indicators characterizing the development of the social infrastructure of agriculture in the Chuvash Republic for 2009–2018 and using the Excel program, in table 2, the equations of three options for the development of the situation for 2019–2022 are derived on three indicators
Summary
Agriculture is a complex system, the development strategy of which goes beyond production and is largely determined by the state and prospects of solving social problems. The purpose of the article is, based on statistical data on the main indicators of the social infrastructure of agriculture in the Chuvash Republic, to calculate their predicted values to substantiate development scenarios and effective management. To build graphs of the development of the situation in the agriculture of the Chuvash Republic until 2022, the MS Excel application was used
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