Forecasting the behavior of the innovative potential of an entity subject to macroeconomic regulation in terms of trends in the long Kondratieff cycle

Abstract

Subject. We evaluate the innovative potential of an macroeconomically managed entity using our mathematical tools, field theory and vector analysis based on the Triple Helix concept. Objectives. The research analyzes whether the economic situation is predicable if we use the mathematical tools to determine the innovative potential of the macroentity and the theory of long Kondratieff waves proved by C. Perez. Methods. We review the total results, which were inferred with the mathematical tools intended to determine the innovative potential of the macroentity and the theory of Carlota Perez. Results. We forecast how the innovative potential of the macroentity will develop, referring to the Russian case, exploring the economic situation within 2000–2015, and adhering to the theory of Carlota Perez in order to detect the phase of the long Kondratieff wave. The mathematical tools helped us observe the innovative potential trends for the given period. Combining the two approaches, we managed to figure out the further trend in the economic situation for the macroentity. The tools allow to forecast further economic developments by analyzing three components of the innovative potential – factors of knowledge intensiveness, profitability, productive capabilities. Conclusions. Combining our tool and the theory of long Kondratieff waves, we conclude that Russia is about to face another technological revolution, approaching the forth phase of the Long Kondratieff Cycle. According to Carlota Perez's theory, the forth phase end is the time of great ambivalence. So, for smoother transition, we need measures to create absolutely new technologies, preserve and/or revive the existing expertise.