КОНЦЕПЦИЯ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО УКЛАДА КАК СОВРЕМЕННОЕ ПРОДОЛЖЕНИЕ ТЕОРИИ ДЛИННЫХ ЦИКЛОВ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ

Abstract

The paper reports the concept of a technological way as an urgent and empirically substantiated continuation of the wellknown theory of long waves in economy. The theory of long waves allows predicting on an empirical level world economic crises and an economic growth on the horizon for 50 years. The genesis of the theory of long waves by means of retrospective author’s classification of theories of long waves in accordance with technological, economic, institutional, administrative and social signs is analyzed. A basic range of authors having formed a modern and urgent theory of long waves which is verified by time and supported by empirical computations is presented by N.D. Kondratiev, G. Mensch, J. Dossy, Ch. Peres, S.Yu. Glaziev. The concept of a technological way being empirically confirmed by the continuation of the theory of long waves was formed by Academician Glaziev. In this concept there are revealed basic statement-laws and also the necessity of methodological approaches in technological, economic, institutional, administrative and sociological fields. The logic of the formation and interaction of technological totality is described thoroughly. The conclusions of technological way existence are drawn. Technological innovations defining the formation of the core of a technological way and revolutionizing a technological structure of economy have obtained a name of a “key factor”. Nanotechnologies are such a factor at present and for the prospect of 50 years. The conclusions of a basic property of a technological way being a self-reproducing integrity are drawn in consequence of which the technical development of economy cannot take place otherwise as by means of a successive change of technological ways.