Forecasting stock index return and volatility based on GAVMD- Carbon-BiLSTM: How important is carbon emission trading?

Abstract

This paper proposes a new forecast method of stock price return and volatility by GAVMD-Carbon-BiLSTM. First, based on the data from eight carbon markets in China, the logarithmic rate of return of carbon emission rights price is constructed. Second, the TVP-VAR model is used to investigate the impact effect of carbon emission rights trading, stock price return, and volatility. It is used as a predictor of return and volatility rationality. Third, the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the variational mode decomposition. Fourth, the return and volatility of stock price are decomposed into multiple intrinsic modes, effectively reducing the data’s complexity. Finally, GAVMD is combined with BiLSTM, and the logarithmic return of carbon emission trading price is used as input to predict the stock price return and volatility. The results show that carbon emissions trading impacts the rate of return and volatility at different lead times and time points. Therefore, using it to predict stock price return and volatility can improve prediction accuracy. At the same time, combining GAVMD with BiLSTM, the prediction performance of carbon emission trading price logarithmic return rate as input is much better than other machine learning models.