Forecasting passenger movement for Brazilian airports network based on the segregation of primary and secondary demand applied to Brazilian civil aviation policies planning

Abstract

The paper describes a model developed in the Brazilian National Secretariat of Civil Aviation for predicting the movement of passengers by commercial flights at airports, consolidating two types of demand, a primary, captive demand, that exclusively utilizes the airport of the respective Airport Zone (ZA), as long as it supplies flights. To that primary demand, we add a secondary demand, which is residual and more volatile, depending on the distance from the airport with commercial flights. Four examples are presented showing the results of the model in relation to the competition between airports and catchment areas.