FORECASTING ORF BY THE MARTOS METHOD AND THE STATISTICAL METHOD USING THE EXAMPLE OF DEPOSIT X

Abstract

The article discusses the effectiveness of the Martos method and the statistical method for predicting oil recovery factor using the example of the X field. Today's values of oil recovery factors (ORF) for Triassic horizons were determined taking into account the active water pressure regime with artificial maintenance of reservoir pressure (RPM) and the drilling of 16 new production wells. This approach required a revision of ORF values due to the transition to natural reservoir development and the cessation of maintaining reservoir pressure by water injection. The failure to drill new wells has also had a significant impact on ORF. At current production, when 44.7% of the field's reserves have been extracted, and taking into account the remaining reserves, the development period of the field will not exceed 42 years. It is also planned to increase the number of hydraulic engineering measures to expand drainage zones and involve additional reserves in development. Having compared the two methods for calculating ORF, we can conclude that although V.N. Martos’ method is based on reservoir parameters, and the statistical method uses historical data, the results of their calculations differ slightly.