Abstract
Forecasting yield of crops is important for planners in taking tactical decisions for ensuring food availability. Crop simulation models are useful tool to forecast the crop yield. The CERES-wheat model calibrated and validated with experimental data was used to predict the district wise yield in Bihar. Based on the areas under different dates of sowing and crop cultivars, a correction factor was applied on simulated yield to predict the district wise and regional wheat yield. The simulated yield were higher than the actual yield in all the three agro-climatic zones, while the forecasted yields were very close to actual. The percentage deviation of the forecasted yield from the actual was ±4.0 %. The results clearly indicated that the CERES-Wheat model can be used to regional production estimates of wheat in Bihar.
Highlights
Forecasting of wheat yield, well in advance, is important for policy makers in the government for further course of action and planning
In the present study, forecasting of wheat yield on regional basis by using crop simulation model (CERESWheat) and integrating agronomic and management inputs have been done for different agro-climatic zones of Bihar
The simulated yield was compared with the district yield, averaged over the past few years, to get the correction factor, which subsequently would be utilized to get the forecasted yield in the test years
Summary
Forecasting of wheat yield, well in advance, is important for policy makers in the government for further course of action and planning. Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agro-Meteorology and Land based observations (FASAL) Network is important from view point of regional yield estimates (Ghosh et al, 2014). By integrating agronomic and inputs management and weather can provide reliable forecast of crop yield in advance (Agrawal and Mehta, 2007).
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