Comparative prediction of wheat yield in Punjab using ceres-Wheat and infocrop wheat model

Abstract

Two dynamic simulation models viz. ceRes-Wheat and infocrop-Wheat model were used to estimate the yield and phenology of wheat. For the calibration of the models, the data on three cultivars of wheat sown under five dates of sowing during Rabi 2014–15 was used. the models were validated using similar data sets from experiments conducted during Rabi 2015–16. the model overestimated/underestimated the phenology and yield of wheat. the deviation in the days taken to anthesis and physiological maturity was-9 to +3 and-7 to +1 day, respectively by ceRes-Wheat and-3 to +11 and-10 to +1 days, respectively by infocrop-Wheat model. the d-stat values for the days taken to anthesis, physiological maturity and grain yield in ceRes-Wheat model were 0.82, 0.60 and 0.85%, respectively whereas in infocrop-Wheat model the respective values were 0.87, 0.81 and 0.80. the RMse values for the days taken to anthesis, physiological maturity and grain yield were 3.48 days, 3.87 days and 493.8 kg/ha, respectively in ceRes-Wheat model and 7.83 days, 6.88 days and 434.4 kg/ha, respectively in infocrop-Wheat model. the results of the study indicate that the models were well calibrated and validated for further use to predict phenology and yield of wheat in Punjab.