Forecasting of Vessel Traffic Flow Using BPNN Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization

Abstract

Accurate prediction of vessel traffic flow plays a significant role in the field of modern intelligent transportation system. In order to enhance the prediction accuracy of vessel traffic flow, this paper combines genetic algorithm (GA) and Back Propagation neural network (BPNN) to build a prediction model. Based on the vessel traffic flow data of The Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge, the simulation experiments were carried out from 2013 to 2018. The average relative error of BPNN optimized by GA is 4.03%, which is better than the average relative error of direct BPNN prediction is 5.57%. The results show that accuracy of the prediction model using BPNN with GA optimization is higher than the traditional BPNN. The BPNN optimized by GA has achieved more ideal results in the forecast of vessel traffic flow. This paper provides the theoretical basis for the relevant decision-making of the water safety authorities so as to guarantee the water traffic safety.