Abstract
Subject of research: forecasting the formation of pharmaceutical glass waste in medical institutions, taking into account the peculiarities of the use of medicines during the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine. Research problem: Predicting the formation and accumulation of pharmaceutical glass waste in hospitals in order to implement effective environmental management and determine the resource possibilities for further waste disposal. Main scientific results: A model has been developed that can be used to predict the generation of pharmaceutical waste from glass in hospitals in the country during an epidemic, as well as in the presence of the necessary input data in a non-epidemic period. Based on regression analysis and using the Minitab-19 software, the dependences of the volume of pharmaceutical waste from glass on three variable factors were determined. Using statistical data on the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine, using the developed model, the PGW volume in the Volyn region for a given period of time was calculated. The scope of practical application of the research results: planning of measures to improve the environmental safety of handling pharmaceutical glass waste; development of business models for the disposal of this waste. An innovative technological product: the predictive model helps to identify the resource possibilities of using pharmaceutical glass waste for industrial waste disposal. Scope of application of the innovative technological product: medical waste management, industrial disposal of pharmaceutical glass waste.
Highlights
To determine the number of formed PGW as input variables, let’s use: – х1 – number of inhabitants; – х2 – number of patients with COVID-19; – х3 – the total amount of medical waste generated in hospitals (t/week)
In the calculations to determine the PGW number, a hypothetical situation was considered in which a third of the population of Ukraine could be ill with COVID-19
Using the developed model, using the example of the Volyn region, the dependence of the PGW amount (y4) on the number of patients with COVID-19 in the region (y2) and the total amount of medical waste generated in hospitals in this region (t/week) (y3) was established
Summary
The object of research The object of research is to predict the formation of pharmaceutical glass waste in hospitals, taking into account the peculiarities of the use of medicines during the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine. The current COVID-19 epidemic, which is projected to continue for years [1], has already generated an extremely large amount of infected medical waste. In existing models of medical waste generation, attention is drawn to the classification of waste by hazard [2], dependence of a medical institution on the form of ownership (public or private sector), type of patient treatment, level of patient care [3], number of wards and beds, staff and Innovative technologies in industry inpatients [4]. The complexity of modeling the process of medical waste generation using these approaches is explained by the rapid changes in input parameters (for example, the number of wards, the level of service, etc.)
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