Forecasting of Electricity Consumption by Household Consumers Using Fuzzy Logic Based on the Development Plan of the Power System of the Republic of Tajikistan

Abstract

Seasonal fluctuations in electricity consumption, and uneven loading of supply lines reduce not only the energy efficiency of networks, but also contribute to a decrease in the service life of elements of power supply systems. To solve the problem of forecasting power consumption, it is proposed to use the theory of fuzzy sets to assess the effective development of the energy system of the Republic of Tajikistan. According to the statistical data of power consumption for the previous period, a fuzzy logic model with membership functions is proposed, which makes it possible to evaluate consumer satisfaction using the criteria unsatisfactory, satisfactory, conditionally satisfactory, and satisfactory, as well as the efficiency of the consumption mode of compliance using the criteria high, medium, and low, allowing the evaluation of the efficiency plan for the development of the energy system of the Republic of Tajikistan. To obtain and set more accurate data on electricity consumption, calculations were made for the winter period of the year. Based on the proposed calculation model of fuzzy logic, a quantitative component of electricity consumption, the corresponding satisfaction of the consumer, and the efficiency of the regime for nine cities of the Republic of Tajikistan were proposed in the form of diagrams of seasonal electricity consumption. The obtained seasonal power consumption makes it possible to improve the accuracy of estimating power consumption, thereby equalizing the balance of consumption and generation.