Forecasting of Capital Investments into the Fixed Capital in Regions Until 2024: Methods and Results of Territorial Forecast for Russia

Abstract

The aim of the study is to improve the methodology of forecasting of the territorial proportions of fixed capital investments within the medium-term forecast of the social and economic development of Russia. The author proposes a method of decomposition of predicted national indicators at the regional level which takes into account the prospects of attracting private investments and implementing large investment projects with the state participation. The researcher describes the system of factors determining the interregional differences of private investors’ activity and forming the metric basis of complex estimation of the regional investment attractiveness using the official statistics. The paper presents the list and methods for estimating the indicators characterizing the production, financial, consumer, institutional, innovative, infrastructure and natural-resource components of the region’s investment potential, as well as social, environmental and technological regional investment risks. The paper shows the opportunities of using the functional relationship for the medium-term forecasting between the integral regional indicators of the investment attractiveness and activity. The national forecast has been decomposed by calculating the individual regional deviations of the forecasted national growth rate of fixed investment in Russia for 2019–2024. The developed variants of perspective territorial proportions confirm the possibility to achieve the national target of the forecast presented as a 25 percent share of the fixed investment in GDP of Russia and reflect the core perspective destinations of development for different parts of the country – the accelerated development of the Far East, the Arctic zone, the largest metropolitan areas of Russia, as well as the provision of national security in the geostrategic regions of the North Caucasus and Southern Federal Districts. The approach is designed to support the administrative decisions concerning the spatial development by linking regional and investment policy priorities.