Forecasting of a Lifecycle of the Projects of Production of Biofuel Raw Materials With Consideration of Risks

Abstract

The article argues the expediency of use of the project approach to management of the projects of production of raw materials for biofuel. It requires consideration of those projects’ particularities and development of managerial instruments. The work specifies components of the lifecycles of the projects for production of biofuel raw materials. The research composes the unsolved managerial problem of forecasting of a lifecycle of the projects of production of biofuel raw materials with consideration of the risks, caused by changeable natural and climatic conditions of the region. The scientific novelty of the performed research is the substantiation of the system-risk approach and models of the risk of occurrence in the projects of production of raw materials for biofuels. They provide quality forecasting for the life cycle of biofuel feedstocks, taking into account the risks of the region’s natural and climatic conditions. To solve the problem, the authors propose to use the approach, which expects performance of four sequential stages, namely: 1) formation of the chains of cause-and-effect relations between the events and the probable time of the events occurrence, as well as the stages of the projects’ lifecycle; 2) assessment of the risk of the time of occurrence of the basic events under the natural and climatic conditions in the region; 3) argumentation of the dependences between the time of event occurrence and duration of the stages of the project lifecycle; 4) forecasting of duration of the project lifecycle. Basing on the proposed approach, the authors of the research performed quantitative assessment of duration of a lifecycle of the project of production of raw material for biofuel under conditions of Yavoriv district in Lviv region. It is confirmed that the events of start of implementation of the project of production of biofuel raw materials are changeable and described by the standard law of distribution, while the events of completion of the works of industrial crops harvesting are described by the Weibull distribution law. The obtained dependences of mathematical expectation of duration of the phase of the project implementation on the time of that phase start under different scenarios of that phase completion are described by polynomial equations of the second order. Such equations create a base for determination of the need for resources while planning the mentioned projects with consideration of the risks of the natural and climatic component of the project environment and arguing the responses to those risks.