Forecasting Non-Metal and Rock Mineral (MBLB) Tax Revenue Using the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain Method in East Lombok Regency

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries that is included in a developing countries. Therefore, the Indonesian Goverment is trying to carry out various developments in various regions. Regional development is one of the Indonesian government’s ways of achieving national goals. In carrying out regional development, of course funds are needed as the main source to support the achievement of national development. The main source of funds obtained by the Government comes from Regional Oroginal Income. One source of Regional Oroginal Income is tax. There are various types of taxes managed by the government in East Lombok Regency. One of them is the Non-Metal Minerals and Rocks, which is a tax on the extraction of non-metallic minerals and rock Tax, which is a tax on the extraction of of non-metallic minerals and rocks from natural sources within or on the surface of the earth for use. This Non-Metal and Rock Mineral tax provides quite large revenues for East Lombok district regional taxes. Non-Metal and Rock Mineral tax income is often not constant, meaning that there is an increases and there is a decreases in the amount of income. For this reason, it is necessary to forecast Non-Metal and Rock Mineral tax revenue to predict income in the future. The method used in this study is the FTS Markov Chain order 1 and order 2. Based on the MAPE indicator, the results of forecasting using the FTS Markov Chain method of order 1 amounted to Rp. 1.117.069.497 with an accuracy of 48,55% with a just good forecasting classification. While the results of forecasting using the FTS Markov Chain method of order 2 amounted to Rp.1.761.652.173 with an accuracy of 39,12% with a just good forecasting classification. If seen from the MAPE value obtained, the forecasting results using the 2nd order FTS Markov Chain are more accurate than using the 1st order Markov Chain FTS method.