Forecasting New Features and Market Adoption of Wearable Devices Using TRIZ and Growth Curves: Case of Fitness Tracking Products

Abstract

This paper describes the application of a combination of TRIZ and Bass modeling to forecast the technology growth projections for one of the wearable devices, fitness trackers. For the TRIZ modeling, the fitness tracking system was divided into three subsystems and each was analyzed as per the technology trends from current literature. The subsystems’ combined assessment was then visualized via a radar plot. The analysis showed the technology to be in an emergent state with primary growth in the hardware and software subsystem areas. The Bass model showed the market peaking at eight and saturating in 15 years.