Applying TRIZ and bass model to forecast fitness tracking devices technology

Abstract

65% of the world's population lives in countries where overweight and obesity kills more people than those who are underweight. Healthcare organizations, private corporations and individuals are investing in proactive health and weight management. Advances in sensor technologies have enabled development of affordable wearable technology devices, the most rapid expansion being fitness trackers which entered the market in 2012. This paper describes the application of a combination of TRIZ and Bass modeling to forecast the technology growth projections for fitness trackers. For the TRIZ modeling, the fitness tracking system was divided into three subsystems and each was analyzed per the technology trends from current literature. The subsystems' combined assessment was then visualized via a radar plot. The analysis showed the technology to be in an emergent state with primary growth in the hardware and software subsystem areas. For the Bass model adoption rate projection, the market size was estimated to be 69% of the US population who are active health trackers. The innovator and imitator parameters were calculated using information from analogous products such as cellular phone, home PC and ultrasound imaging. The Bass model showed the market peaking at eight and saturating in fifteen years.