Forecasting models and warning services in Emilia‐Romagna (Italy) 1

Abstract

The Integrated Production project in Emilia‐Romagna involves 152 technicians and covers 7300 farms over more than 50 000 ha. The use of forecasting models is an important part of the pest control strategy, so a warning service using forecasting models integrated with biological data from field surveys is fundamental in further improving the potential of the project, and maintaining high quality. The Integrated Warning Service requires: a computing system, a network of weather stations, field monitoring systems (spore traps and pheromone traps) and an efficient extension service able to perform local field surveys and to give advice to farmers. At the moment, the Regional Information System uses forecasting models for Venturia inaequalis, Plasmopara viticola, Phytophthora infestons on tomato, Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, and apple leafrollers (Pandemis cerasana and Argyrotaenia pulchellana). In future, other forecasting models will be introduced into the Regional Information System. The Warning Service is based on the integration of information provided by the forecasting models with that from field monitoring, so as to give more precise warnings about the real risk of pest outbreaks along with the best control strategy. Warnings are sent out by means of weekly bulletins, television programmes and telephone answering machines.