Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example— Sydney, Australia

Abstract

This paper contributes to the methodology of forecasting population change and population structures of large cities and their major subregions. The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, interstate and city—hinterland migration streams and the natural increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change. Wider applications of the model to other urban systems are suggested, and the resource impacts and problems of Sydney's likely growth are delineated.