Forecasting Methods Applied to Oil Production Deposits at Bazhenov Formation

Abstract

Analysis of the experience of operating wells in the territory of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra (KhMAO-Yugra) using the displacement characteristic “ALGOMES-2”, presented in the work, allows to identify trends in the development of these sediments taking into account the presence of a dual environment of the productive reservoir, to estimate the nearest and medium term prospect of development taking into account application of modern technologies and influence on a layer. According to the results of the assessment, it is established that the profitability of the development of the Bazhenov formation does not provide more than 80 percent of the wells that drain less than 30,000 tons of oil, the development of these deposits in modern conditions is possible with the use of hydraulic fracturing, HS and Multistage hydraulic fracturing of the reservoir (MGRP). The forecast of oil production levels using the ALGOMES-2 methodology and the Monte Carlo probability-statistical simulation method used in Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) showed that the oil production level is expected to be around 700000-800000 tons per year in the period up to 2030. These figures indicate the advisability of involving in the development of bituminous shales taking into account the technology of impact on these layers. The work noted that the development of deposits Bazhenov formation should be conducted selectively, it is necessary to rely on the data obtained as a result of the amplitude-frequency characteristics of the seismic exploration of the Bazhenov formation, and the wells should be located in fractured rocks.