Forecasting Logistics Demand Using Unbiased GM (1,1) Model Optimized by AIWPSO Algorithm

Abstract

Accurate forecast of logistics demand can provide scientific guidance for logistics planning and decision making. With the complexity and uncertainty characteristics in logistics demand, the forecasting of logistics demand shows comprehensive and complex. The forecasting precision of the traditional forecasting methods often are not satisfying. It is necessary to look for novel forecasting methods to enhance the forecasting precision of logistics demand. Integrating the unbiased GM (1,1) model (UGM (1,1)) into the adaptive inertia weight particle swarm optimization (AIWPSO) algorithm, this paper developed a novel model for forecasting logistics demand, called AIWPSO-UGM (1,1) model, in which the UGM (1,1) model was used to forecast logistics demand and the AIWPSO algorithm was adopted to optimize the grey parameters needed in UGM (1,1) model. Two examples were selected to prove the out-of-sample performance of the AIWPSO-UGM (1,1) model in forecasting logistics demand. The results imply that the proposed AIWPSO-UGM (1,1) model performs better in logistics demand forecasting compared to the GM (1,1) model optimized by AIWPSO algorithm (AIWPSO-GM (1,1)), UGM (1,1), and GM (1,1) models.