Forecasting impacts of climate and land-use change on Vallonea oak (Quercus ithaburensis subsp. macrolepis) based on the ensemble modeling

Abstract

Although Mediterranean species demonstrate a strong ability to survive in degraded and arid environments, it is crucial to acknowledge the significant influence that climate change can have on them. Woodlands dominated by Quercus ithaburensis subsp. macrolepis are part of an agroforestry system in the Mediterranean region, hence, the potential changes in its distribution were investigated under future climate and land-use change scenarios through species distribution modeling. The modeling results show that the suitable habitats for the species are mainly concentrated in Greece and the west of Anatolia, which are already natural ranges. In addition, climate has a higher influence on the thriving strength and distribution of the species than land-use, with temperature being the primary factor driving these effects. Therefore, the distribution of the species is predicted to undergo small declines in suitable habitats and to be more influenced by climate change than the combination of land-use and climate change in case of minor temperature increases. However, the synergistic influence of land-use and climate change is expected to have a more adverse impact on the distribution of the species than climate change alone in case of major temperature changes, thus leading to a more significant decrease in the species’ habitats.