Abstract
Forecasting Hourly Patient Visits in the Emergency Department to Counteract Crowding
Highlights
The common entry point to hospitals for most patients with acute problems is the emergency department (ED), which is a busy – sometimes hectic – place where severely injured persons may arrive at little notice, yet the bulk of the patients have unalarming injuries
Hourly patient arrivals were forecasted with a mean percentage error of 47-58%, 49-58% (ARIMA), and 60-76%
We focus on forecasting the hour-by-hour evolution in patient arrivals and ED occupancy to support ED clinicians in their ongoing scheduling and rescheduling of their work so that they can provide quality care and avoid crowding
Summary
While the arrival of patients is determined by factors beyond the ED clinicians’ control, previous research has found consistent hour-of-the-day and day-of-the-week patterns in patient arrivals [2 - 6]. We focus on forecasting the hour-by-hour evolution in patient arrivals and ED occupancy to support ED clinicians in their ongoing scheduling and rescheduling of their work so that they can provide quality care and avoid crowding. While the number of daily and monthly patient arrivals can be forecasted with good accuracy, ED clinicians need hourly forecasts in their ongoing scheduling and rescheduling of their work
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