Abstract
The existence of extreme seasonal demand, such that off-season monthly demand is close to zero, means that tourism operators are forced to be more efficient in the high season. It also means that it is important to construct a forecast model for the high-season demand. In forecasting tourism demand for a location such as a cold-water island, we face such extreme seasonality. Rishiri Island in Japan is a typical example. We construct several forecasting models and evaluate their forecasting performance. Forecasts from the SARIMA model with full-season data and without a trend term perform best in postsample evaluation.
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