Forecasting exposure to volcanic ash based on ash dispersion modeling

Abstract

A technique has been developed that uses Puff, a volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) model, to forecast the relative exposure of aircraft and ground facilities to ash from a volcanic eruption. VATD models couple numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with physical descriptions of the initial eruptive plume, atmospheric dispersion, and settling of ash particles. Three distinct examples of variations on the technique are given using ERA-40 archived reanalysis NWP data. The Feb. 2000 NASA DC-8 event involving an eruption of Hekla volcano, Iceland is first used for analyzing a single flight. Results corroborate previous analyses that conclude the aircraft did encounter a diffuse cloud of volcanic origin, and indicate exposure within a factor of 10 compared to measurements made on the flight. The sensitivity of the technique to dispersion physics is demonstrated. The Feb. 2001 eruption of Mt. Cleveland, Alaska is used as a second example to demonstrate how this technique can be utilized to quickly assess the potential exposure of a multitude of aircraft during and soon after an event. Using flight tracking data from over 40,000 routes over three days, several flights that may have encountered low concentrations of ash were identified, and the exposure calculated. Relative changes in the quantity of exposure when the eruption duration is varied are discussed, and no clear trend is evident as the exposure increased for some flights and decreased for others. A third application of this technique is demonstrated by forecasting the near-surface airborne concentrations of ash that the cities of Yakima Washington, Boise Idaho, and Kelowna British Columbia might have experienced from an eruption of Mt. St. Helens anytime during the year 2000. Results indicate that proximity to the source does not accurately determine the potential hazard. Although an eruption did not occur during this time, the results serve as a demonstration of how existing cities or potential locations of research facilities or military bases can be assessed for susceptibility to hazardous and unhealthy concentrations of ash and other volcanic gases.