Abstract
The present paper aims to introduce a top down methodology for the forecasting of residential energy demand in four European countries, namely Germany, Italy, Spain, and Lithuania. The methodology employed to develop the estimation is based on econometric techniques. In particular, a logarithmic dynamic linear constant relationship of the consumption is proposed. Demand is estimated as a function of a set of explaining variables, namely heating degree days and gross domestic product per capita. The results confirm that the methodology can be applied to the case of Germany, Italy, and Spain, whereas it is not suitable for Lithuania. The analysis of elasticities of the demand with respect to the gross domestic product per capita shows a negative value for Germany, −0.629, and positive values for Italy, 0.837, and Spain, 0.249. The forecasting of consumption shows that Germany and Italy are more sensitive to weather conditions with respect to Spain and an increase in the demand of 8% and 9% is expected in case of cold climatic conditions.
Highlights
Buildings are supposed to be responsible for the 40% of energy consumption at European Union level [1], it is of paramount importance to understand which measures can be implemented in order to mitigate their impact on the environment.In light of these, different countries promoted and implemented a legislation framework aiming at supporting and prescribing the implementations of measures to increase the energy efficiency of buildings [2]
To develop the energy forecasting model proposed in the present paper, it is necessary to analyze the trend of fundamental variables determining the energy consumption in the residential sector
To analyze energy demand in the residential sector of Germany, Italy, Spain, and Lithuania, Equation (2) is proposed and it is supposed that the drivers pushing the demand are climatic conditions, represented by heating degree days (HDDs) and the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita
Summary
Buildings are supposed to be responsible for the 40% of energy consumption at European Union level [1], it is of paramount importance to understand which measures can be implemented in order to mitigate their impact on the environment. The building sector attracted the interest of many authors since it offers relevant opportunities to save energy and carbon emissions To this aim, Bianco et al [10] modelled electricity and natural gas consumption in the Italian hotel sector by using the LEAP platform, developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute. Pietrapertosa et al [16] developed a detailed model of the Italian energy system by using the TIMES modelling platform by focusing on the analysis of air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions They analyzed different policies to mitigate the impact of the emissions. They focused on the savings of fossil fuels, in particular natural gas and crude oil Their detailed model allowed simulation of the impact of different system management strategies and to quantify the corresponding impacts in terms of energy consumption, pollutants, and carbon emissions.
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