Expected Changes in Heating and Cooling Degree Days over Greece in the near Future Based on Climate Scenarios Projections

Abstract

The change in heating and cooling needs of Greece in the near future due to the climate change is assessed in the present study. Global and regional climate models and two different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate the expected change in temperature. A widely used methodology of computation of heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days (CDDs) is employed with a base temperature of 18 °C. In agreement with the expected temperature rise in the near future, an HDD decrease and CDD increase under both RCPs is also expected. The changes under RCP8.5 are stronger compared to those under RCP4.5. Differences related to topography are noted. The HDD decrease is stronger than CDD increase but the relative increase in CDDs is higher than the relative increase in HDDs. The highest absolute decreases in HDDs are expected for February and March while the highest absolute increases in CDDs are expected during the three summer months.