FORECASTING ECOLOGICAL STATE OF THE UDY RIVER CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE IN KHARKIV REGION

Abstract

Problem. An analysis of the ecological state of rivers in Kharkiv region shows that the limit for using their water resources has been reached. Methods for rationing anthropogenic load on water bodies, based on sanitation and hygiene regulations, do not allow assessing the possibility of using water resources with observation of the equilibrium state of aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies on the impact of climate change on the state of aquatic ecosystems have shown the urgency of the need for forecasting climate change and the ecological state of the Udy River for the purpose of improving the system of surface water quality management and its adaption to EU environmental legislation. Goal. The purpose of the article is to forecast the ecological state of the Udy River considering climate change in tKharkiv region for providing scientific substantiation of the water conservation strategy. Methodology. The Holt-Winters method has been used in the work. It provides an opportunity to predict time series when there is a trend and seasonality in the data structure. The advantage of this method is the ability to make a long-range forecast. Results. The assessment of the ecological state of the Siversky Donets River basin located in Kharkiv region has been carried out. It has shown that the Udy River running through village Khoroshevo and urban area Eskhar is in the worst state. According to the assessment of the ecological state of the Udy River basin in the Chuhuevsky district of Kharkiv region, which has been performed for the period from 1964 to 2015, the river is in poor state. The forecast of changes in rainfall until 2022 in Kharkiv region performed on the basis of observations for the period from 1969 to 2015 has shown a slight decrease in precipitation by 31.7 mm from 536.5 mm in 2015 to 504.78 mm in 2022. On the basis of the research on climate change in Kharkiv region and the ecological state of the Udy River in urban area Eskhar (1969-2015) it has been found out that climate change has a significant impact on the hydrological regime of the river. Originality. The quality prediction for the Udy River is presented in the article for the first time considering climate change by the Holt-Winters method. The analysis of the current and the projected state has revealed the need to implement an iterative approach to surface water quality management. Practical value. The projection data of the ecological state of the Udy River can be used as ecological component of the target indicators of the water conservation strategy.