Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

Xiao-Jun Wang,Jian-Yun Zhang,Xu Zhang,Yu-Xuan Xie,Shamsuddin Shahid

doi:10.5194/piahs-376-51-2018

Abstract

Abstract. A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

Highlights

Residential water demand is defined as the amount of water withdrawal for residential purposes such as in-house water use for drinking, food preparing, bathing, clothes and dishes washing, toilet flushing, etc. as well as outdoor water needs for gardening, lawn watering, etc. (Blokker et al, 2010; Wang et al, 2017a)
A model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development
The domestic water demand in the Haihe River basin is projected in the range of 85.82 × 108 to 110.37 × 108 m3 in 2020, and 107.25 × 108 to 136.22 × 108 m3 in 2030

Summary

Introduction

Residential water demand is defined as the amount of water withdrawal for residential purposes such as in-house water use for drinking, food preparing, bathing, clothes and dishes washing, toilet flushing, etc. as well as outdoor water needs for gardening, lawn watering, etc. (Blokker et al, 2010; Wang et al, 2017a). Residential water withdrawal or demand are measured in household or regional levels and forecasted. The domestic water demand depends on number of factors including population growth, socio-economic development, climate change, urbanization, water saving technological advances, water tariff, etc. A number of recent studies assessed the impacts of those factors on domestic water demand in different regions (Dursun, 2010; Zachariadis, 2010; Protopapas et al, 2010; Karamouz et al, 2011; Jakimavicius and Kriauciuniene, 2013; Browne et al, 2013; Wang et al, 2014, 2017b; Babel et al, 2014; Price et al, 2014; Walker et al, 2016; Froelich and Magiera, 2016). Understanding possible changes in residential water demand due to environmental changes is important for water resources planning and man-

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