Abstract
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River.Design/methodology/approachThe model is developed through the analysis of the effects of climate variables and population on domestic water use in eight sub-basins of the Yellow River. The model is then used to forecast water demand under different environment change scenarios.FindingsThe model projected an increase in domestic water demand in the Yellow River basin in the range of 67.85 × 108 to 62.20 × 108 m3 in year 2020 and between 73.32 × 108 and 89.27 × 108 m3 in year 2030. The general circulation model Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) predicted the highest increase in water demand in both 2020 and 2030, while Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model v.5 (CNRM-CM5) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System (MIROC-ESM) projected the lowest increase in demand in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The fastest growth in water demand is found in the region where water demand is already very high, which may cause serious water shortage and conflicts among water users.Originality/valueThe simple regression-based domestic water demand model proposed in the study can be used for rapid evaluation of possible changes in domestic water demand due to environmental changes to aid in adaptation and mitigation planning.
Highlights
Climate change, rapid social economic development and population growth have imposed significant challenges to sustainable development all around the world (Nigel and Ben, 2014, Wang et al, 2014a, 2014b; Shahid et al, 2014, 2016)
The objective of the present paper is to develop a statistical model to forecast domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development
A statistical model was developed in this paper to forecast domestic water demand due to changes in climate, population and water-saving technologies
Summary
Rapid social economic development and population growth have imposed significant challenges to sustainable development all around the world (Nigel and Ben, 2014, Wang et al, 2014a, 2014b; Shahid et al, 2014, 2016). As a unique and increasingly scarce commodity, water is among the most significantly affected resources by these changes. Ensuring continuous and adequate water supply to growing population and developing economy is one of. © Xiao-jun Wang, Jian-yun Zhang, Shamsuddin Shahid, Lang Yu, Chen Xie, Bing-xuan Wang and Xu Zhang. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http:// creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
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