Forecasting Daily Maximum and Minimum Air Temperatures in The Cilacap District Using Arima and Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

This research aims to predict daily maximum and minimum air temperatures in Cilacap Regency using ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing. Data was obtained from recordings carried out by BMKG Cilacap using maximum and minimum thermometers taken from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2021. The results show that the best forecasting model uses the ARIMA (2,1,2) model for maximum temperature and the ARIMA (1,1,1) model for minimum temperature, with the MAPE value of 2.09% for the maximum temperature and 2.44% for the minimum temperature, while the RMSE value obtained is 0.9177 for the maximum temperature and 0.8001 for the minimum temperature. Based on the ARIMA model, Cilacap's daily maximum temperature in 2022 was predicted to be around 30.6ᵒC, with a 95% confidence interval between 28ᵒC - 35ᵒC, while the minimum temperature was predicted to be around 25.1ᵒC, with a 95% confidence interval between 23ᵒC - 28ᵒC.