Forecasting cryptocurrencies returns: Do macroeconomic and financial variables improve tail expectation predictions?

Abstract

This study aims to jointly predict conditional quantiles and tail expectations for the returns of the most popular cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Dogecoin and Litecoin) using financial and macroeconomic indicators as explanatory variables. We adopt a Monotone Composite Quantile Regression Neural Network (MCQRNN) model to make one- and five-steps-ahead predictions of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) based on a rolling window and compare the performance of our model against the Historical simulation and the standard ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model used as benchmarks. The superior set of models is then chosen by backtesting VaR and ES using a Model Confidence Set procedure. Our results show that the MCQRNN performs better than both benchmark models for jointly predicting VaR and ES when considering daily data. Models with the implied volatility index, treasury yield spread and inflation expectations sharpen the extreme return predictions. The results are consistent for the two risk measures at the 1% and 5% level both, in the case of a long and short position and for all cryptocurrencies.