Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

Turkey is one of main producers and exporter countries of chestnut in the world. It is essential to assess scientifically the accurate future production and export potentials of chestnut on the basis of past trends. This study focuses on forecasting the chestnut production and export of Turkey up to the year 2021 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The time series data for the chestnut production and export of Turkey were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Annual data for the period of 1961-2016 was used for the study. The study revealed that the best models for forecasting the chestnut production and export were ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 2, 1), respectively. The ARIMA model showed that while the chestnut production of Turkey in 2021 would be 64.183 tonnes with lower limit of 38.946 tonnes and upper limit of 89420 tonnes. However, Turkey’s chestnut export in 2021 would be 7.962 tonnes with lower limit of 563 tonnes and upper limit of 15362 tonnes. The study concluded that Turkey’s chestnut production and export will increase in the forecasted years. The stakeholders of chestnut sector should take account these projections in their production and marketing decision.