Forecasting Blood Demand Using the Support Vektor Regression Method (Case Study: Blood Transfusion Unit-PMI Central Lombok)

Abstract

Blood is an important component produced by the human body. Blood is also a very vital part of human survival. When blood levels in the human body are less than they should be, the way to overcome this is by donating blood or blood transfusion. The health facilities that organize blood donations, provide blood and distribute blood are called Blood Transfusion Units (UTD). UTD in carrying out its duties encountered several obstacles, such as blood only having a shelf life of 35 days from donation. If it has passed the expiration date, it cannot be used anymore for blood transfusions. Meanwhile, regarding the demand for blood, the need for blood is greater than those donating. Making it difficult for UTD if the demand occurs when the existing blood stock is not sufficient. And if the stock in UTD experiences an axcess, it can cause losses because the blood is wasted due to expiration. Apart form that. The problem is that in everyday life, many people’s need for blood is reduced. Many of their families intervened directly to find available donors. They even search on social networks or social media such as WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram and others. And this shows that many of them lack donors. To anticipate these problems. So it is necessary to carry out research on forecasting blood demand using the Support Vektor Regression method at UTD PMI Central Lombok. The aim of this research is to forecast or predict the demand for blood at UTD PMI Central Lombok in the coming period. To reduce the impact of lack or excess blood. SVR is the application of Support Vektor Machine (SVM) in the case of regression to find the best dividing line in the regression function. The advantage of the SVR model is that it can handle overfiting problems in the data. The tests used to measure the best model are Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). The results of this research shows that the best model is Support Vektor Regression (SVR) with a polynomial kernel and based on the tuning results, the parameters used are C=10, degree=1, epsilon=1. The SVR model using a polynomial kernel produces a MAPE value of 18.7502% and RMSE value of 0.6919, which means the model has very good predictive ability. Prediction accuracy was achieved with an R2 value of 0.9936 or 99.36% and an MSE value of 0.4787, which means that the prediction of blood demand data at UTD PMI Central Lombok using SVR with a polynomial kernel function had very good prediction accuracy. With predicted result in january for blood type A it was 1654, B was 920, O was 2205 and AB was 1104