Forecasting and stock control for fast-moving humanitarian aid supplies

Abstract

In Indonesia, effective disaster management is imperative due to the region's susceptibility to a wide array of natural and man-made disasters. The establishment of the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) underscores the significance of this issue. This study investigates the improvement of disaster logistics, with a particular emphasis on the challenges associated with fast-moving humanitarian supplies. The primary obstacle in disaster logistics lies in the unpredictability of demand after the disaster occurred, coupled with the potential for supply disruptions stemming from inadequate inventory in warehouses. A critical focus of this research is placed on fast-moving humanitarian aid supplies, which are essential for immediate relief efforts, even when lead times are short. The study's primary objective is the development of a safety stock level policy for BNPB's national warehouse, adjusted through the analysis of demand forecasts and lead times. Notably, the research results for the year 2022 reveal minimal errors in demand forecasts. This outcome highlights the effectiveness of the safety stock policy in proactively addressing spikes in demand and mitigating uncertainties related to supply timelines. The research underscores the critical role of accurate inventory management, particularly in the case of fast-moving humanitarian supplies, within the context of disaster relief efforts. It emphasizes the importance of forward-thinking planning to meet urgent needs, ultimately contributing to more efficient disaster response efforts and ensuring the timely delivery of vital relief items to affected populations.