Forecasting Analysis of Fishermen’s Productivity Data Using Single Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

One of the reasons why it is vital to forecast fisher production data in coastal regions is to increase fish resource management efficiency. By calculating the number of fishing boats, the amount of fish that must be caught, and the amount of raw materials required for fish processing based on the anticipated amount of fishermen's production in the following period, decision-makers can determine the amount of fish that must be caught and the amount of raw materials required for fish processing. So that the objective of the research is to forecast fishermen's production data using the Single Exponential Smoothing method, this method is effectively used to perform forecasting of time series data with short period data intervals to produce forecasts for the next period, and it can measure the rate of change of fishermen's production data each period. The results of forecasting data on fishermen's production utilizing time series data intervals from October 2022 to January 2023 to make forecasts for February 2023, namely a MAPE error rate of 2.85%, indicate that the forecasting results are within the "good" category.