Abstract
Setting the target of groundwater tax revenues for the next year is an important thing for Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue to maximize the regional income and accelerate regional development. Process of setting the target of groundwater tax revenue for the next year still using estimation only and not using a mathematical calculation method that can generate target reference value. If the realization of groundwater tax revenue is not approaching the target, the implementation of development in the Government of Kutai Kartanegara can be disrupted. The mathematical method commonly used to predict revenue value is the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method, which uses alpha constant value which is randomly selected for the calculation process. Forecasting of groundwater tax revenue for 2018 using groundwater tax revenue data from 2013 to 2017. Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha constant value consists of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The forecasting error value of each alpha value is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The best result is forecasting using alpha value 0.1 with MAPE error value was 45.868 and the best forecasting value of groundwater tax for 2018 is Rp 443.904.600,7192.
Highlights
The data realization of groundwater tax revenue is used to estimate the potential of groundwater tax revenue in the 1 year through the meetings held at the end of every year
The Single Exponential Smoothing method was used as a method of settlement because the realization of groundwater tax revenue data used to estimate the potential of groundwater tax revenue in the 1 year is stationary data or relatively stable data
In this research data collected from the Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue the collected data is the data of groundwater tax revenue from January to December for the last 5 years from 2013 to 2017
Summary
The data realization of groundwater tax revenue is used to estimate the potential of groundwater tax revenue in the 1 (one) year through the meetings held at the end of every year. The target of groundwater taxes revenue that has been determined in recent years is far from the realization. Exponential Smoothing is a method that continually improves forecasting by taking the smoothing value of the past value of a data series of time exponentially. The Single Exponential Smoothing method was used as a method of settlement because the realization of groundwater tax revenue data used to estimate the potential of groundwater tax revenue in the 1 (one) year is stationary data or relatively stable data
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