Forecast of Tsunamis from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka Source Region

Abstract

This paper describes an investigation of the subfault distribution along the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zone for the implementation of a far-field tsunami forecast algorithm. Analyses of seismic data from 1900 to 2000 define the subduction zone, which in turn is divided into 222 subfaults based on the fault characteristics. For unit slip of the subfaults, a linear long-wave model generates a database of mareograms at water-level stations along the subduction zone and at warning points in the North Pacific. When a tsunami occurs, an inverse algorithm determines the slip distribution from near-source water-level records and predicts the waveforms at the warning points using the pre-computed mareograms. A jackknife resampling scheme uses combinations of input water-level records to provide a series of waveform predictions for the computation of the confidence-interval bounds. The inverse algorithm is applied to hindcast two major tsunamis generated from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka source and the computed tsunami heights show good agreement with recorded water-level data.