Forecast of the development of an emergency at hydraulic structures of the Republic of Tatarstan

Abstract

At present, a large number of hydraulic structures have been erected on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan, which are classified as hydrodynamic hazardous facilities. Accidents at these facilities are sources of man-made emergencies. A number of hydraulic structures on the territory have been in operation without reconstruction for more than 70 years. The problem of ensuring the safety of hydraulic structures remains not fully understood and relevant today. Basically all hydraulic structures are located within or above settlements and are objects of increased risk. The consequences of a catastrophic flood can be aggravated by accidents at potentially dangerous facilities falling into its zone. The damage caused by such floods can amount to tens of millions of rubles. Incomplete destruction of the dam, when the safe operation of the structure is no longer possible, can lead to serious economic losses as a result of the cessation of energy production, hydraulic regulation and water collection in the reservoir. Careful monitoring is required in order to identify any possible emergencies. One of the solutions in this situation is the use of various methods for predicting emergency situations at hydraulic structures. In this regard, in the work, the authors have adapted a mathematical model based on Markov chains, which is distinguished by the efficiency of calculations and a high degree of approximation to statistical data. This model makes it possible to predict the state of hydraulic structures when the data on the water level and the volume of infiltration in the hydraulic structure changes. Based on the adapted model, the results of forecasting the water level for real hydraulic structures were obtained.