ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЧРЕЗВЫЧАЙНОЙ СИТУАЦИИ НА ГИДРОТЕХНИЧЕСКИХ СООРУЖЕНИЯХ

Abstract

The article deals with the actual problem of emergencies at hydraulic structures. Since time immemorial, man has continuously developed various methods and techniques to take advantage of the benefits of water resources, as well as to protect himself from the ravages of water. Thus, on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan, a large number of hydraulic structures were erected, which are classified as hydrodynamic hazardous facilities. Accidents at these facilities are sources of man-made emergencies. A number of hydraulic structures on the territory have been in operation without reconstruction for more than 70 years, and most of them are in disrepair. The problem of ensuring the safety of hydraulic structures remains not fully understood and relevant today. As a rule, basically all hydraulic structures are located within or above settlements and are objects of increased risk, since the destruction of dams can lead to an environmental disaster. Also, incomplete destruction of the dam, when the safe operation of the structure is no longer possible, can lead to serious economic losses as a result of the cessation of energy production, hydraulic regulation and water collection in the reservoir. Therefore, careful monitoring is required to identify any possible emergencies. One of the solutions in this situation is the use of various methods for predicting emergencies at hydraulic structures. In this regard, in the work, the authors adapted a mathematical model based on Markov chains, which is distinguished by the efficiency of calculations and a high degree of approximation to statistical data. This model makes it possible to predict the state of hydraulic structures when the data on the water level and the volume of seepage in the hydraulic structure changes. Based on the adapted model, the results of forecasting the water level for real hydraulic structures were obtained.