Abstract
Being photovoltaic power generation affected by radiation strength, wind speed, clouds cover and environment temperature, the generating in each moment is fluctuating. The operational characteristics of grid-connected PV systems are coincided with gray theory application conditions. A gray theory model has been applied in short-term forecast of grid-connected photovoltaic system. The verification model of the probability of small error will help to check the accuracy of the gray forecast results. The calculated result shows that the model accuracy has been greatly enhanced.
Highlights
The grid-connected PV power generation has become the trend of the development of solar photovoltaic applications
The operational characteristics of grid-connected PV systems are coincided with gray theory application conditions
The randomness of photovoltaic power generation impacts the stability of power system and the actual load demand directly
Summary
The grid-connected PV power generation has become the trend of the development of solar photovoltaic applications. The forecast of PV power generation will help the grid-connected PV capacity within the control range and minimize the adverse effects, as in [1,2]. The gray system theory is satisfied to the less data and uncertainty problem It is consisted of a few basic part, they are gray system analysis, gray model, gray forecast, gray decisions, gray control and gray optimization techniques. Limited by maximum solar radiation values, the trend of generation is monotonous and graded. This kind of incomplete information system is just suitable for the object of gray forecast, as in [6,7]
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