Forecast of power generation for grid-connected photovoltaic system based on grey theory and verification Model

Abstract

Being photovoltaic power generation affected by radiation strength, wind speed, clouds cover and environment temperature, the generating in each moment is fluctuate. The operational characteristics of grid-connected PV systems is coincided with gray theory application conditions. A gray theory model has been applied in short-term forecast of grid-connected photovoltaic system. The verification model of the probability of small error will help to check the accuracy of the gray forecast results. The calculated result shows that the GM (1,1) model accuracy has been greatly enhanced.