FORECAST OF FUTURE ACIDIC DEPOSITIONS USING AN ANALYSIS TOOL OF LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT (TRAJEC)

Abstract

A tool for forecasting future acidic depositions in Japan was developed. This tool (the TRAJEC: TRAns-sea of Japan and East China sea system) projects the future regional energy supply, calculates the emission levels of sulfur dioxides (SO2) and nitrogen compounds, and estimates the geographical pattern of acidic deposition resulting from these emissions. Future acidic depositions in Japan were forecast using the TRAJEC. Sulfur deposition through 2030 was calculated from the source-receptor matrix for 1995 and the growth rate of emissions for the source subregion. In the case of the current legislation (CLE) scenario, anthropogenic SO2 emissions in East Asia would grow by 34% and sulfur deposition in Japan would increase 16% between 1995 and 2030. This increase of sulfur deposition over these 35 years is slightly less than the contribution of volcanic emissions to overall sulfur deposition in Japan. In the case of the hypothetical worst-case scenario for China, sulfur deposition in several site, facing the Sea of Japan would double by 2030. In the case of the CLE scenario, nitrogen oxides emissions in East Asia would grow approximately 50% and nitrogen deposition in Japan would increase approximately 30%.