Forecast of differential settlement of structures using data of monitoring system

Abstract

The article analyzes the results of observations of uneven settlement of various buildings, obtained in the course of long-term observations with the help of automated systems of deformation monitoring. The main purpose of the work is to evaluate the possibilities of predicting sedimentary processes using statistical forecasting models. Emphasis is placed on approach using time series analysis algorithms. The results of simulation using the integrated autoregressive moving average model are demonstrated. To build a forecast, data on the foundation settlement over a 5-year period were used. Predictive values obtained for 1-year and 2-year intervals are compared with the data of real observations. The comparison showed that at the chosen forecasting horizon, the deviation of the predicted settlement value from the actually observed one is comparable to the accuracy of sediment measurement by hydraulic leveling sensors. The study showed the promise of using this approach to predict the integrity of structures within the framework of an automated system of deformation monitoring.